What does the Fed have to say about interest rates?
What does the Fed have to say about interest rates?
Continue to float locks; we’ll go with it to start; no movement now until after Bernanke’s speech at about 12:00. Interest rates do not appear to have substantial volatility this morning.
Good start today; the interest rate markets opened stronger on the continuing weak dollar and slowly improving technicals. At 8:30 the 10 yr +8/32 3.39% -3 BP, mortgage prices +3/32; the DJIA futures +50.
8:30 brought Oct retail sales; expected to be +0.9% overall and ex autos +0.4%, as released sales were +1.4% overall and ex autos +0.2%. Initial reaction boosted interest rate prices a little and softened the stock index improvement but within minutes stock indexes bounced back and the rate markets backed off to where they were trading prior to the report. Retail sales are increasingly of interest to the interest rate markets as we move into Christmas shopping ( the politically correct reference is Holiday shopping). Retailers are racing to get what there is out there from consumers, normally late holiday price reductions are happening now.
The weakening dollar continues to drive interest rates lower and equity prices higher; the dollar is soft this morning (again). Who wants a strong dollar? No one; not the Fed, not Treasury and not Pres Obama (haven’t heard from Barney on his take; we think he is working on how he can blame mortgage brokers for the dollar fall). In his speech this afternoon Bernanke will likely have nothing to add or comment about the crashing dollar; it isn’t in the Fed domain of responsibility, Treasury leads on currency issues.
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