Looks like a choppy day ahead for Phoenix interest rates; I will continue to float interest rate locks to start but our finger is on the trigger based on the technicals.

Treasuries and mortgages (interest rates) opened weaker this morning after a strong rally yesterday for treasuries, taking the 10 yr note rate to its lowest in two months. At 8:00 the 10 yr -7/32, DJIA -16. At 8:30 the 10 yr -12/32 3.38% +5 BP, mortgage prices -8/32, DJIA -6. At 9:00 10 yr -12/32 3.38% +5 BP, mortgage prices -4/32 and the DJIA -13. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -26, 10 yr note -8/32 and mortgages at 9:30 -2/32.

Oct PPI out at 8:30, a good report for the inflation outlook. The overall PPI increased 0.3%, estimates were for +0.5%; the core excluding food and energy -0.6% against estimates of +0.1%. Yr/yr overall PPI +1.9%, the core yr/yr +0.7%; both lower than ion Sept. On the knee jerk the 10 yr recovered fro a moment then made new lows (price); mortgages tried to catch a bid but they too were printing new lows in the very early activity.

Looking back to yesterday; interest rate markets were rock solid most of the day with double digit price gains, a few lenders re-priced about 2:00 reflecting the improvement from morning prices. Interest Rates looked very strong until Dallas Fed Pres Fisher said he expected mortgage interest rates to widen over treasuries in the period ahead. That did it; heavy selling exploded in mortgages and all the gains were erased within 30 minutes. Later in the afternoon mortgage interest rates made another attempt to regain footing but going into the end of the day (5:00) mortgages once again were hit by selling leaving mortgage prices only 2/32 better than at 9:30 yesterday morning after being up 10/32 from morning pricing levels. This was a quick retreat for interest rates.

The economy has lost 15 million jobs so far; 876K jobs have been lost since July. Big numbers, the unemployment rate increased 0.4% from Sept to Oct to 10.2%. Banks still are reluctant to lend and remain vulnerable to further pressures. Yesterday Meredith Whitney, one of the premier bank analysts, said she thinks bank stocks are over-valued, causing bank stocks to slip on her comments. She added her name and reputation to the view of a double dip recession ahead; not looking for a re-test of the lows in the stock indexes but still a W on the economic recovery. Continued uncertainty, with the Fed cheer leading while many very reputable analysts are sounding bearish. The result for the bond market is an increase in volatility; rates at these low levels require continued verbal support, any comments to the contrary will set up selling keeping long term interest rates confined to tight ranges. In our view, unless consumers begin to spend the economic recovery will be slow and likely drag on through next year; bullish outlooks continue to ignore the fact that consumers account for 70% of GDP growth and concentrate on the idea the economy can recover as a jobless recovery.

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Continue to float locks; we’ll go with it to start; no movement now until after Bernanke’s speech at about 12:00. Interest rates do not appear to have substantial volatility this morning.

Good start today; the interest rate markets opened stronger on the continuing weak dollar and slowly improving technicals. At 8:30 the 10 yr +8/32 3.39% -3 BP, mortgage prices +3/32; the DJIA futures +50.

8:30 brought Oct retail sales; expected to be +0.9% overall and ex autos +0.4%, as released sales were +1.4% overall and ex autos +0.2%. Initial reaction boosted interest rate prices a little and softened the stock index improvement but within minutes stock indexes bounced back and the rate markets backed off to where they were trading prior to the report. Retail sales are increasingly of interest to the interest rate markets as we move into Christmas shopping ( the politically correct reference is Holiday shopping). Retailers are racing to get what there is out there from consumers, normally late holiday price reductions are happening now.

The weakening dollar continues to drive interest rates lower and equity prices higher; the dollar is soft this morning (again). Who wants a strong dollar? No one; not the Fed, not Treasury and not Pres Obama (haven’t heard from Barney on his take; we think he is working on how he can blame mortgage brokers for the dollar fall). In his speech this afternoon Bernanke will likely have nothing to add or comment about the crashing dollar; it isn’t in the Fed domain of responsibility, Treasury leads on currency issues.

If you are a Phoenix Homebuyer and need a low interest rate loan, get started here

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Friday Phoenix mortgage interest rate update……….

I will continue to float over the weekend, but I caution not to let the locked loans pile up; keep your exposure from taking on too much risk. Like the market but not in love with it.  Interest rates have improved today.

If you were not watching the interest rate market early this morning you would think today wasn’t much of a day given the employment report this morning. As is the case most of the time, the employment report sets off hip shooting that results in lots of traders getting their pocket books lightened. Today when the unemployment rate hit 10.2% the bond market exploded in a strong rally, the stock index futures rolled down hard and mortgage prices jumped. It took about 30 minutes to settle down, then by 9:30 selling took over in the bond market and the DJIA traded up as much as 75 points at 9:50. Mortgage interest rates and treasuries dropped their gains, went negative, sat weaker for 30 minutes before returning to spend the rest of the day unchanged on the 10 yr and stock market while mortgages bounced back to levels at 9:30. Who cares? Lenders that priced before 9:30, market commentators like us and traders licking wounds on their knees. Just a rehash of how volatile the employment report usually is.

Non-farm job losses in Oct were more than expected, -190K; but were offset by a cumulative increase in job losses previously reported by 91K in Sept and October. The upward revisions were the saving grace and provided the spin the rest of the day. While unemployment is increasing and likely to hit 11% in the next year, it generally is pushed aside by traders in favor of the non-farm jobs counts; that is, when it is convenient. When unemployment rates begin to decline that data will be the focus. Still putting lipstick on the sow and trying to get her to the prom; the employment situation is getting worse, not better; no matter the spinners that see non-farm jobs only falling 200K a month as “good news”.

Consumers continue to cut credit; Sept declined $14.2B, mkts were expecting -$10B. The fourth consecutive month credit expansion declined. Banks are contributing by refusing to extend credit to otherwise qualified people.

President Obama signed legislation extending the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and giving additional tax breaks to certain homeowners trading up. Passed overwhelmingly by Congress, the bill would provide a $6,500 tax credit to homeowners who are buying a new primary residence beginning Dec. 1. The language mandates that to get the credit the homeowner must have owned their home for five consecutive years of the previous eight. But there are caps on the tax credits. They only apply to individual buyers who make no more than $125,000 and $250,000 for couples. There is also an anti-flipping provision: Any homeowner who collects the credit and sells within three years must return the money. The FTHB was extended to cover consumers signing a contract by April 30 and closing by June 30.

If you are a Phoenix Homebuyer and need a low interest rate loan, get started here

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I will continue to float this morning; not real bullish but willing to start holding locks. Keep abreast to the instant re-pricing alerts. Still a nervous trade.

Very early this morning the bond market tried to improve but got a gut punch on weekly jobless claims and settled back.  Interest rates at this time have remained stable.  At 8:00 the 10 yr note +3/32, mtg prices +1/32 and the DJIA +9. At 8:30 the 10 yr -1/32, mtgs -1/32 and the DJIA +40. At 9:00 the 10 -4/32, mtgs -1/32 and the DJIA +60. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +80, the 10 yr -4/32 and mortgages holding at unch.

Weekly jobless claims were expected to have declined 10K, they were down 20K to 512K for last week, the lowest weekly claims figure since early January when they were -488K. Continuing clams were lower also; at 5.749 mil from 5.817 mil the previous week. Jobless claims can have a huge impact on interest rates.

Also at 8:30 Q3 productivity, expected to be +6.5%, it jumped to +9.5%.  Not a positive sign for those looking for jobs; increasing productivity is getting more from employed workers than has been seen in six years. Unemployment figures are critical to interest rate movement.

Senate passed the bill extending the home buyers tax credit and adding 14 weeks to unemployment insurance; it goes to the House for quick passage then to Obama for a TV extravaganza signing event. This should have a positive impact on interest rates.

Yesterday’s statement from the FOMC meeting is still being chewed. Although the Fed said it would keep interest rates low for an “extended” period even as the economy shows early signs of growth and inflation isn’t a concern, it isn’t sitting well with fixed income investors. Traders and investors fear the Fed will repeat its mistakes of the past by keeping rates low too long, setting off an inflation spiral. Can’t necessarily agree with that view but it is in play with interest rate levels as low as they are. Unlikely Bernanke will make the Greenspan mistake, letting rates so low it set off the financial collapse and economic mess we face today. Greenspan blew it in hindsight (always crystal clear); he kept rates low to long and let liquidity build, the combo set banks and Wall Street on a binge that only Barney Frank could fix (yea right). Bernanke isn’t likely to make that mistake. Inflation fears are at once real and overblown now; but with long term rates at historically low levels and the easiest path up, traders and investors will not waiver on inflation concerns.

Retailers posted mixed October same-store sales, with teen-focused chains posting lower-than-expected sales, as the industry gears up for the critical holiday season. Teen retailers shares slumped on the news in premarket trading. But a handful of retailers reported better-than-expected sales, including Stage Stores Inc., Stein Mart Inc. and Wet Seal Inc. Gap Inc.’s same-store sales rose 4%, and the casual-clothing retailer said it expects fiscal third-quarter earnings above Wall Street’s expectations. October isn’t typically a strong sales month for retailers — proving a lull between back-to-school shopping and Christmas shopping.

With employment tomorrow look for generally quiet trade today in both stocks and bonds. Rate markets have a big hurdle; employment and next week’s refunding, $81B of notes and bonds.

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Start by floating interest rate locks this morning but stay alert to instant re-pricing alerts. Likely not much movement until at least 2:15 this afternoon. I monitor and track  interest rate markets every minutes.  When I locked interest rates on loans yesterday afternoon, my average client paid a .25% lower interest rate on their 30 year foxed rate loan.

Started soft this morning with the 10 yr once again testing the 3.50% level; so far it has held again. At 8:15 this morning the 10 yr -8/32 3.50%, mtg prices -5/32 and the DJIA at +51. At 9:00 the 10 -7/32, mtgs -4/32 and the DJIA +66. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +65, 10 yr note -11/32 at 3.51% and mortgages -4/32.  The markets right now are trending towards higher interest rates.

The ADP jobs report for Oct at 8:15 was weaker than what had been thought, non-farm jobs excluding government workers -203K; forecasts were a decline of 190K. Manufacturing jobs however, down 53K was less than expected and less than what has been the case over the last several months. There was little reaction in the interest rate markets to the data; treasuries and mortgages were already at key support and held.

Earlier this morning at 7:00 the weekly MBA mortgage applications; the composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.2%. The refinance Index increased 14.5% from the previous week but the purchase Index decreased 1.8% from one week earlier. The four week moving average for the overall market Index is down 5.5%. This seems to be a reaction to lower interest rates.

The ISM services sector data at 10:00; the overall index was expected at 51.5, was weaker at 50.6 frm 50.9 in Sept. New orders were better at 55.6 frm 54.2, price index at 53.0 frm 48.8 and employment declined to 41.1 frm 44.3. No noticeable initial reaction to the data.

Now through 2:15 this afternoon the rate markets are likely to sit quietly at key support levels for the yield on the 10 yr and resistance levels for mortgage backs on the price chart you can see on the Market Insights at MBS Tracking (suggest taking a look at FNMA 4.5). Traders and investors will keep their heads until the statement is released and analyzed. The focus on how the Fed may possibly adjust the wording in the statement that would provide more wiggle room on how long the Fed will leave the FF rate at zero. Not likely there is any thought of increasing rates anytime in the next six months, but as have noted previously, markets won’t sit back and wait for the Fed to act; by the time the Fed actually moves markets will have already discounted it. The point being, while no rate increases are in the offing, the path is definitely up for rates from these levels (and of course the obvious caveat; if equity markets were to implode rate markets will benefit).

At 10:10 the 10 yr note is sitting right on its support at 3.50%; mortgages are backing off their resistance as treasury rates move higher.

If you are a Phoenix Homebuyer and need a low interest rate loan, get started here

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With interest rates hovering around their thirty-year lows, a multitude of flexible and low-cost loan financing programs are available as well as a wide variety of assistance programs that can help virtually anybody experience the joy of homeownership.  In short, the time is right for buying your a home.

However, if you have always been a renter then you probably aren’t as well informed of the intimate processes of obtaining a home mortgage as you’d like to be.  To guide you through this exciting but often confusing time, this report details six tips that will help make your purchase a much smoother experience, save you money and eliminate your anxieties.

Get Mortgage Pre-Approval Before Starting Your Search

Before you begin looking for the home of your dreams, before you make one single decision regarding a home purchase, call my office to get pre-approved by a mortgage professional.  This is a FREE service I offer and will give you a definite advantage in the buying process.

During the evaluation stage, we’ll look at your financial situation and help you figure out how much home you can afford.  This may influence your decision for size, amenities and location, which will help narrow your search.

Pre-approval will also give you a step up on your competition.  Homebuyers that are pre-approved have increased leverage over buyers who are not.  Essentially a pre-approved buyer becomes a “cash” buyer.

Shop Around For A Professional Mortgage Broker

Like most industries, the quality of mortgage professionals can and does vary significantly.  So don’t immediately settle on the first lender you talk to.  Shop your mortgage around to until you find someone that you completely and unconditionally trust.  I think you will find that will be me.

My belief is to “teach” my clients how the real estate and finance systems work against the consumer in order to help THEM make the best decisions possible.

Download the following homebuyer and financing information at my web blog:

www.azhomebuyercoach.com/free-info

Mortgage Tricks

Shopping Around

Satisfaction Guarantee

Top 11 Credit Do’s and Don’t’s

Five Part Buying System

Don’t Become Fixated On The Interest Rate Alone!

Be careful!  The lowest interest rate does not always translate to the best deal.  Look at the total loan program that is being offered, not just the rate. There are several factors that have to be taken into account when evaluating programs: the loan type (fixed or adjustable), the loan term (15 year or 30 year), the closing costs and the down payment requirement.

NOTE:  The most important factor to consider is the ACTUAL interest you pay to the lender over he course of the loan.  My average client will save over $100,000 in payments and interest over the life of the loan.

If you are a Phoenix Homebuyer and need a low interest rate loan, get started here

Would you like to buy homes 10% to 20% below market value? Call our office at (602) 291-4362 or fill out your information below.                                             (your information will NEVER be distributed to another party)

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Too often I think people are turning a “blind eye” to what is happening to us in Washington. There are hearings currently taking place with our Treasury Secretary that will have a massive impact on our economy, businesses and personal lives. Legislation is currently being proposed that will allow the government to take over our largest banks, eliminate (take your investment money) shareholders and set pay for the country’s largest banks.

The following link will take you to a great video from a service I subscribe to that outlines what is happening to us.  Please watch and feel free to comment on.

http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/player/tbws/19302/886593

Not good this morning with the 10 yr breaking above 3.50%. Mtg prices are declining, interest rates will be going up.  Suggest not floating today.

Interest rate markets started unchanged this morning with no data or anything else of consequence. At 8:30 the 10 yr -1/32, mtgs unchanged; at 9:00 10 yr -4/32 and mortgages -2/32, the DJIA +20. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +30, the 10 yr note breached its key psychological and technical support at 3.50%, -9/32 at 3.52%, mortgage prices -6/32 (.18 bp).

There are no economic releases today that should impact interest rates; Treasury will sell $7B of 5 yr inflation indexed notes at 1:00 this afternoon, likely to see decent demand and not generally much interest to traders. After today however the calendar is loaded and Treasury will auction $116B of notes.

This Week’s Calendar:

Tuesday;

9:00 Aug Case/Shiller Home Price Index (-11.9% frm -13.3% in July)

10:00 Oct Consumer Confidence ( 53.5 frm 53.1)

1:00 $44B 2 yr note auction

Wednesday;

8:30 Sept durable goods orders (+1.0%; ex-transportation orders +0.7%)

10:00 Sept new home sales (+2.5% to 440K units annualized)

1:00 $41B 5 yr note auction

Thursday;

8:30 weekly jobless claims (-6K to 525K, continuing claims 5.915 mil frm 5.923 mil)

Q3 advance GDP report (+3.2% frm -0.7% in Q2)

Q3 chain weight deflator +1.3%, Q2 unch)

1:00 $31B 7 yr note auction

Friday;

8:30 Sept personal income and spending (income unch, spending -0.5%)

Sept personal consumption expenditures (PCE) (-0.5% overall, ex food and energy +0.2%)

9:45 Chicago purchasing mgrs index (48.7 frm 46.1 in Sept)

9:55 U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (70.0 frm 69.4)

10:00 Q3 employment cost index (+0.4%)

Not what we wanted to see this morning, the 10 yr note is breaking key support at 3.50%. Mortgage interest rates will be rising. Supply and expected better economic releases this week are taking their toll at the moment. Although the 10 yr and mortgages continue negative direction, we won’t completely toss in the towel just yet, but the path for rates is not looking good. Central bankers are focusing on increasing base rates; three weeks ago Australia increased its rate by 25 basis point, over the weekend Norway joined in and is expected to raise its rate on Wednesday. The reason both countries are giving is an increase in home prices in those countries. Talk among central bankers now is redirecting thinking to focus directly on asset prices rather than overall inflation when setting monetary policy. The Fed is reviewing whether recent gains in asset prices and narrowing credit spreads are justified as they try to ensure near-zero borrowing costs don’t generate future market turmoil. Increasingly more market concerns that tightening efforts are not far off; markets won’t wait to see what the Fed will do and are becoming more bearish toward the interest rate outlook.

It is a consensus among traders; that the stock market is overdue for a correction. Just about every trader we hear from is expecting the key indexes to roll over. While they expect it, equally they are unwilling to jump ship as no matter how over-baked they think the market is, it keeps on climbing. One or two days of minor pullbacks are met with buying as investors looking at the longer view buy the dips, fearing being left behind. As long as there is the belief the economy will continue to improve, no end to where equity markets can go, and no opportunity for interest rates to decline much.

If you are a Phoenix Homebuyer and need a low interest rate loan, get started here

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Start by floating this morning; the rest of the session will be focusing on equity markets. We are not looking for much improvement however, and continue to remind the present condition in the rate markets is bearish; although not aggressively so. Any additional selling in mortgages and we will stop floating and lock. Stay tuned for updates as necessary.

Rate markets opened weaker early this morning. At 8:15 prior to weekly jobless claims the 10 yr note -6/32 and mortgage prices -5/32. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were higher than expected; markets were expecting an increase of about 4K they jumped 11K to 531K. Last week’s claims were revised up 6K frm 514K to 520K. Continuing claims declined to 5.92 mil from 6.02 mil last week, revised from 5.992 mil.

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Weekly claims being higher than expected should have provided a modicum of support for the rate markets and a little pressure on equity prices (although at 9:45 the DJIA was trading better); at least on a knee jerk reaction. Not the case however, claims data is leveling out recently so a little chop is no longer the issue it was a month ago.  We don’t trust the recent claims data on jobs with the jobless claims a touch higher, continuing claim lower and a minor improvement on the 4-wk average.  All the alterations in how jobs and or joblessness are counted have shifted, and without a straight read of some sort the market will continue to distrust the reports.

At 10:00, a few minutes ago, Sept leading economic indicators were expected to be +0.9%; it came at +1.0%, August revised to +0.4% frm +0.6%. Not a big series so not much attention is paid to it by traders.

Also at 10:00 the FHFA housing price index for August, expected to be +0.3%, prices as reported were down 0.3%. That did a little initial number on the equity market with the DJIA selling off slightly, The decline boosted the rate market prices a little.

At 11:00 Treasury will announce the amounts for next week’s auctions; 2 yr, 5 yr and 7 yr notes to fund the growing federal deficit. Last month the total was $112B for all three. Supply, while in the past few months has not been a problem to absorb, is always a pressure point for the rate markets. The last auction Treasury conducted, 30 yr bond on the 8th of the month, didn’t go as well as traders expected. At the long end of the curve, it doesn’t necessarily equate to the auctions next week; but with the dollar declining it begs the question about how much more foreign investors are willing to take down at present yields. So far the weakening dollar has attracted investors, likely to continue this go round. That said, it is unlikely treasuries will rally into the supply.

Stepping back; since 8/14 the bellwether 10 yr note has established a well defined range and set the range for mortgage rates. With the exception of six trading days the 10 yr note has held between 3.25% and 3.50% with most of the trade occurring between 3.35% and 3.47%. When seen in that context the rate markets have been very stable since mid-summer. Lots of swings but within a tight range. The run lower (below 3.25%) was immediately rejected, implying investors have little interest in the 10 yr or mortgages when their yields fall much below where they trade today. Technically the 10 yr and mortgages are bearish, as long as 3.50% holds we are not concerned, but if 3.50% breaks on the note look for a rapid increase of 25 basis points on the note and 30 yr mortgage rates.

If you are a Phoenix Homebuyer and need a low interest rate loan, get started here

I suggest starting the day by floating; we normally do that. It is a bear market now however so we will not press it and move to lock mode on any weakness. If you float today keep close for our alerts. Unless mortgage markets gain a little traction through the rest of the day we will lock over the weekend.Look for interest rates to remain stable today.

If you would like to subscribe to our Interest Rate Watch service call my office at (602) 291-4362.

As we expected, the 10 yr and mortgages opened slightly better this morning with the benchmark 10 yr testing its technical support yesterday and holding it at the 3.50% area. No change in the bearish path however, just a bounce in what we believe will be a range for the note and mortgages of about 25 basis points (3.50%/3.25% on the 10) and 5.00% to 5.25% for 30 yr mtgs. At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note traded +8/32 at 3.44% -2 BP; mtgs +5/32 (.15 bp). The DJIA futures traded -58 on some weaker than expected earnings reports. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95; 10 yr +12/32 3.42% -4 BP, mtg prices +5/32.

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Prior to the equity market open at 9:30; Sept industrial production was expected to +0.2%, it jumped 0.7% and August production increased from 0.8% to +1.2%. Manufacturing output rose 0.9%, lower than +1.2% in August. Sept capacity utilization, also better than expected, 70.5% against estimates of 69.6%; August capacity use was revised slightly better to 69.9% frm 69.6% originally reported. Manufacturing use increased to 67.5% frm 66.8% in August. The reaction to the better data pushed mortgages backed to unchanged and the 10 yr note from +8/32 to unchanged.

At 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 74.0 frm 73.5 at the end of Sept, was lower at 69.4. The 12 month outlook question on the survey fell to 79 frm 88.0 at the end of Sept; consumer expectations at 67.6 frm 73.5 at the end of Sept. The survey is subject to wide variations at times, but does take some wind from the sales and reminds consumers are still not in the game of recovery being so heavily bet in the equity markets. No real positive reaction to the report in the bond and mortgage markets but the DJIA fell 10 points on the report.

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The stock market is opening lower this morning on reports from BofA and GE; BofA took another $1B loss for the quarter, the second this year. Loan defaults drove the losses. GE made a profit by cost cutting but its revenues fell short of expectations.

Treasury reported August net foreign purchases of US debt. A total of $32.9B in August; $21.3B by private foreign investors, $11.6B by foreign “official” institutions (central banks) and $4.3B by US residents. No need to look any farther as to who is supporting US deficits.

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Being Friday trade will likely have a narrow range through the remainder of the day. The wider outlook is bearish for the bond and mortgage markets; the shorter view however is a little better after the 10 yr note managed to  hold its first key support at 3.50% yesterday. Still looking for a trading range on the note and mortgages of about 25 basis points; 3.25% to 3.50% on the 10 yr and 5.00% to 5.25% for mortgage rates. So far this morning mortgage markets are somewhat soft.

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