Start by floating this morning; the rest of the session will be focusing on equity markets. We are not looking for much improvement however, and continue to remind the present condition in the rate markets is bearish; although not aggressively so. Any additional selling in mortgages and we will stop floating and lock. Stay tuned for updates as necessary.

Rate markets opened weaker early this morning. At 8:15 prior to weekly jobless claims the 10 yr note -6/32 and mortgage prices -5/32. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were higher than expected; markets were expecting an increase of about 4K they jumped 11K to 531K. Last week’s claims were revised up 6K frm 514K to 520K. Continuing claims declined to 5.92 mil from 6.02 mil last week, revised from 5.992 mil.

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Weekly claims being higher than expected should have provided a modicum of support for the rate markets and a little pressure on equity prices (although at 9:45 the DJIA was trading better); at least on a knee jerk reaction. Not the case however, claims data is leveling out recently so a little chop is no longer the issue it was a month ago.  We don’t trust the recent claims data on jobs with the jobless claims a touch higher, continuing claim lower and a minor improvement on the 4-wk average.  All the alterations in how jobs and or joblessness are counted have shifted, and without a straight read of some sort the market will continue to distrust the reports.

At 10:00, a few minutes ago, Sept leading economic indicators were expected to be +0.9%; it came at +1.0%, August revised to +0.4% frm +0.6%. Not a big series so not much attention is paid to it by traders.

Also at 10:00 the FHFA housing price index for August, expected to be +0.3%, prices as reported were down 0.3%. That did a little initial number on the equity market with the DJIA selling off slightly, The decline boosted the rate market prices a little.

At 11:00 Treasury will announce the amounts for next week’s auctions; 2 yr, 5 yr and 7 yr notes to fund the growing federal deficit. Last month the total was $112B for all three. Supply, while in the past few months has not been a problem to absorb, is always a pressure point for the rate markets. The last auction Treasury conducted, 30 yr bond on the 8th of the month, didn’t go as well as traders expected. At the long end of the curve, it doesn’t necessarily equate to the auctions next week; but with the dollar declining it begs the question about how much more foreign investors are willing to take down at present yields. So far the weakening dollar has attracted investors, likely to continue this go round. That said, it is unlikely treasuries will rally into the supply.

Stepping back; since 8/14 the bellwether 10 yr note has established a well defined range and set the range for mortgage rates. With the exception of six trading days the 10 yr note has held between 3.25% and 3.50% with most of the trade occurring between 3.35% and 3.47%. When seen in that context the rate markets have been very stable since mid-summer. Lots of swings but within a tight range. The run lower (below 3.25%) was immediately rejected, implying investors have little interest in the 10 yr or mortgages when their yields fall much below where they trade today. Technically the 10 yr and mortgages are bearish, as long as 3.50% holds we are not concerned, but if 3.50% breaks on the note look for a rapid increase of 25 basis points on the note and 30 yr mortgage rates.

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I suggest starting the day by floating; we normally do that. It is a bear market now however so we will not press it and move to lock mode on any weakness. If you float today keep close for our alerts. Unless mortgage markets gain a little traction through the rest of the day we will lock over the weekend.Look for interest rates to remain stable today.

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As we expected, the 10 yr and mortgages opened slightly better this morning with the benchmark 10 yr testing its technical support yesterday and holding it at the 3.50% area. No change in the bearish path however, just a bounce in what we believe will be a range for the note and mortgages of about 25 basis points (3.50%/3.25% on the 10) and 5.00% to 5.25% for 30 yr mtgs. At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note traded +8/32 at 3.44% -2 BP; mtgs +5/32 (.15 bp). The DJIA futures traded -58 on some weaker than expected earnings reports. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95; 10 yr +12/32 3.42% -4 BP, mtg prices +5/32.

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Prior to the equity market open at 9:30; Sept industrial production was expected to +0.2%, it jumped 0.7% and August production increased from 0.8% to +1.2%. Manufacturing output rose 0.9%, lower than +1.2% in August. Sept capacity utilization, also better than expected, 70.5% against estimates of 69.6%; August capacity use was revised slightly better to 69.9% frm 69.6% originally reported. Manufacturing use increased to 67.5% frm 66.8% in August. The reaction to the better data pushed mortgages backed to unchanged and the 10 yr note from +8/32 to unchanged.

At 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 74.0 frm 73.5 at the end of Sept, was lower at 69.4. The 12 month outlook question on the survey fell to 79 frm 88.0 at the end of Sept; consumer expectations at 67.6 frm 73.5 at the end of Sept. The survey is subject to wide variations at times, but does take some wind from the sales and reminds consumers are still not in the game of recovery being so heavily bet in the equity markets. No real positive reaction to the report in the bond and mortgage markets but the DJIA fell 10 points on the report.

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The stock market is opening lower this morning on reports from BofA and GE; BofA took another $1B loss for the quarter, the second this year. Loan defaults drove the losses. GE made a profit by cost cutting but its revenues fell short of expectations.

Treasury reported August net foreign purchases of US debt. A total of $32.9B in August; $21.3B by private foreign investors, $11.6B by foreign “official” institutions (central banks) and $4.3B by US residents. No need to look any farther as to who is supporting US deficits.

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Being Friday trade will likely have a narrow range through the remainder of the day. The wider outlook is bearish for the bond and mortgage markets; the shorter view however is a little better after the 10 yr note managed to  hold its first key support at 3.50% yesterday. Still looking for a trading range on the note and mortgages of about 25 basis points; 3.25% to 3.50% on the 10 yr and 5.00% to 5.25% for mortgage rates. So far this morning mortgage markets are somewhat soft.

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Floating is going against the grain these days with the rate markets bearish. However, we always look for that opportunity to catch a bounce. If you are able to keep tuned to our rate alerts we suggest floating to start, but if you are unable to keep close we suggest locking through the day. We will not float overnight unless mortgage prices improve enough to reduce overnight risk (+.25 bp frm initial pricing levels)

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More selling in the interest rate markets this morning. Prior to 8:30 data the 10 yr note was off 5/32 and mortgages were unchanged, the DJIA futures trade had the index -25 after closing slightly above 10K yesterday At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were down 10K to 514K; continuing claims also declined to 5.992 mil from 6.067 mil last week. Sept CPI was fractionally higher than forecasts; +0.2% for both the overall and the core (ex food and energy components). Finally at 8:30, the NY Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 34.57, the estimate was a decline to 17.5 frm 18.88 in Sept, new orders component jumped to 30.82 frm 18.82 (above zero is expansion). All three reports added more negative response in the bond and mortgage markets.

On the weekly claims; continuing claims are declining but may be due to those unemployed running out of unemployment benefits. 514K new filings however isn’t a reason to cheer too much, workers continue to lose jobs at a lesser rate but jobs are still eroding. On the CPI, inflation based on the Sept report suggest a slight increase on the core, but so far we consider it an anomaly, traders however are on edge with the inflationary outlook with interest rates at the current low levels. Don’t have much to comment about on the NY Empire State index jumping like it did, rather surprising given the index was expected to decline, it didn’t go unnoticed by traders.

At 10:00 the Philly Fed business index was expected at 12.5 frm 14.1 in Sept, as reported the overall index fell to 11.5; new orders at 6.2 frm 3.3, prices pd at 21.3 frm 14.9 and employment at -6.8 frm -14.3. Overall the report is slightly better but not nearly as robust as the earlier NY Empire State data at 8:30. No initial reaction to the report in either stocks or bonds.

The bellwether 10 yr is approaching where we expect to hold at 3.50%. Looking for a new range between 3.25% and 3.50%. The 10 yr and mortgages are however technically bearish and it is not advisable to make decisions that the 3.50% will hold until it actually is tested. Both mortgages and long term treasuries are trading below their 20 and 40 day moving averages and have broken various chart support levels after interest rates declined to unsustainable levels based on the increasing view the economy is recovering.

PIMCO is betting on deflation based on the view that the economic recovery will be slow and lethargic. PIMCO reduced its holdings of mortgages in favor of long term treasuries a month ago on the bet deflation and not inflation will keep interest rates low. The increase in treasuries was minor however, from 44% to 48% of the total $185.7B Total Bond Fund. Traders concerned about inflation, Bill Gross at PIMCO concerned that deflation is the coming issue. A lot of uncertainty about the outlook in 2010 will keep volatility high with overall interest rates at these historic low levels.

The FOMC minutes yesterday noted some of the members want to consider having the Fed buy mortgage MBSs after the $1.25 commitment runs out at the end of Q1 2010. If the Fed does signal it will continue to buy MBSs it will keep mortgage rates from increasing as much as they would otherwise. Mortgage rates however will track the 10 yr note direction; if interest rates increase so too will mortgage rates but with less of an increase if the Fed is in the game.

Call our office at (602) 291-4362 to see how our SmartBuyer™ System can save you at least $50,000 when buying and financing a home.

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We warned of increased volatility this week, the rate markets are near term bearish but with not much enthusiasm for massive selling. Yesterday mortgage prices started better, this morning starting lower. We suggest floating to start the day, but remind to stay close for our updates. Not willing to press the markets but with the pricing this morning lower we hang in there for a pop. Unless prices improve frm morning levels we will lock at the end of the session if not sooner based on market movements.

Treasuries were weak from the get-go this morning with the stock indexes roaring higher; the DJIA at 8:00 was trading +90. The 10 down 13/32 and mortgages off 7/32. At 8:30 the 10 -21/32 at 3.42% +7 bp, and mortgages -13/32. At 9:00 the 10 yr -16/32 3.41% +6 BP, mtg prices -15/32 and the DJIA +109. JP Morgan profits were well above forecasts (about 7 times better), and is driving all bank and financial stocks higher this morning, taking the entire market up with it. Most all earnings in Q3 are beating the Street estimates although only a few are out so far. Intel is saying sales will to $1B and earnings from Alcoa and others have been better. In China their exports were down 15%, but that is the best in a year. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +90, 10 yr note -14/32 3.40% +5 BP and mortgages at 9:30 -11/32 on 30s, -9/32 on FHAs and -7/32 on 15s.

Sept retail sales hit at 8:30, better than expected; -1.5% overall but when auto sales are extracted +0.5%, expectations were for a 0.2% increase. August retail revised to +2.2% frm +2.7% overall and ex autos +1.0% frm +1.1%. The initial reaction to the better ex auto sales sent treasuries and mortgages lower but both managed to recover a little from the knee jerk. The DJIA and the other key indexes are on fire this morning on better Q3 earnings being reported. No signs of any weakness in the equity markets as the DJIA is now seen headed to 10K.

Earlier this morning at 7:00 the weekly MBA mortgage applications index fell 1.8%; purchases declined 5.0% while re-finance applications were down 0.1%. 64.7% of all apps were for re-finances. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 5.6%.  The four week moving average is up 1.6% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 8.0% for the Refinance Index.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.02% from 4.89%, with points decreasing to 1.11 from 1.13 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.44% from 4.32%, with points remaining unchanged at 1.04 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The decline in apps on an increase of 13 basis points in rates tells a big story. With interest rates headed higher the volume is likely to continue to fall until buyers and re-financers believe the best has likely passed for rates.

August business inventories were out at 10:00, expected to be down 0.9%, inventories were down 1.5%; sales were up 1.0%. The inventory to sales ratio at 1.33 month frm 1.36 months in July.

At 2:00 the FOMC minutes are the day’s biggest known-unknown, with the market sniffing for hints of dissention on rate hike timing among the ranks and inflation concern. We know what the statement said, what markets will look for in the minutes is the debate that focuses on when the Fed will decide to wind down the easing. Most Fed watchers are expecting the Fed will start by doing re-pos to drain money from banks before it actually starts raising the FF rate. No matter, the bond market will as usual be ahead of what the Fed actually does, so we don’t wait to see the whites of the eyes before markets discount any tightening. While no one is expecting a tightening move from the Fed for many more months until unemployment bottoms, markets will be way out front in driving rates higher—-slowly, but moving higher.

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If you have an FHA, VA or USDA loan, LOCK YOUR RATE!!

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Mortgage prices are already lower than at 9:30 as seen below. The 10 yr has taken out its support at 3.28%, the next level of support is right where the market is at 10:00, 3.32%, the 20 day moving average. We suggested locking yesterday, still really don’t like the risk. If you float today pleas keep alert for our rate alerts. After the recent decline in rates, markets are rejecting the low yields.

Treasuries and mortgages started a little better early this morning; at 8:30 the 10 yr +2/32, mtgs +1/32, but didn’t hold. Stock index futures were lower, the DJIA -26 at 8:30 on a better dollar. At 9:00 the 10 yr note fell out of bed, -12/32 at 3.30%, mtgs -6/32, the DJIA futures -12. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +5, 10 yr note -10/32 at 3.29% and mortgage prices -4/32.

August trade deficit was slightly better than expected, -$30.71B against estimates of -$33B; no reaction to it as usual. The world knows the US runs trade deficits, importing a lot more than exporting. There are no more data feeds the rest of the day. Today is all about Fedspeak; Fed officials are speaking everywhere today. Lockhart of ATL (8:30) vice-chair Kohn (12:00) and St. Louis’s Bullard (2:00).

Last night Bernanke reiterated again that he will be ready to remove stimulus when “the economy has improved sufficiently”. “My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period,” he spoke at a Board of Governors conference in Washington last evening. “At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.” “Looking at the amount of excess capacity in the economy, looking at the low rate of inflation, we believe that conditions will warrant policy accommodation for an extended period,” he said.

Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg are rather pessimistic on the outlook for increased consumer spending in Q4; with unemployment exceeding 10% next year consumers are likely to refrain from the pace of spending in the past quarter. According to the survey of 50+ economists consumer purchases will increase just 1.0% this quarter after increasing 2.4% in Q3. Household spending will grow at a 1.5% pace in the first three months of 2010, and 1.8% in the second quarter, the survey showed.  Obama is considering, and likely will do it, extending the first time homebuyers credit, extending unemployment insurance past the current 27 weeks (if that occurs continuing unemployment claims will increase again after recent declines).

The US, world’s largest economy, contracted 3.8% in the year ended in June, the worst economic slump since the 1930s.

Normally when a market holiday occurs on Monday the bond and mortgage markets close the previous Friday at 2:00; today not the case, markets will not close early. Not a big deal except for traders looking for an early exit.

The 10 yr note, driver for the mortgage markets, hit 3.10% last Friday on the initial reaction to the higher than expected job losses in Sept but rebounded to close at 3.18% that day. Since then the 10 yr note rate has slowly increased to 3.31% at 10:00 this morning and mortgage rates, while holding well against the increase on the 10 yr, are also edging higher. We do not expect the 10 can fall below 3.00% unless the outlook for the economy swings 180 degrees from the current overwhelming consensus that the worst is behind us and recovery will continue. 30 yr bond traded briefly under 4.00% yesterday morning (3.96%) until the auction; the 30 yr is unlikely to fall below 4.00%. Mortgage rates for 30 yr fixed with 20% down are not likely to decline much more from present levels if the economic recovery outlook remains as it is now.

For more information, or to get started on an Arizona FHA, VA or USDA loan, call my office at (602) 291-4362

That’s right, shopping for the lowest interest rate is one of the BIGGEST MISTAKES Phoenix homebuyers can make! Let me explain; about two months ago I received a call from someone looking for a new mortgage to purchase a home in Phoenix.  They were shopping for interest rate quotes.  At the time, I told them interest rates were around 6%.  (I routinely do not quote rates without having all of the information such as credit scores as loans are now “tiered” in pricing based on FICO scores).

They told me they had another Phoenix Mortgage Broker who was willing to lock them today at 5.75% and wondered if I would do the same. I explained to them that it was not in their best interest at that time.  They had not even found a home and locking them for 30 to 45 days was futile.

In addition, because I follow the interest rate market and pricing so closely I felt the market was going to trend down with interest rates going down over the next few weeks. I showed them the data and systems I use to track interest rates.They closed last week with an interest rate of 5.25%.

I receive market updates every 15 minutes via text, monitor treasury auctions and economic data every morning and afternoon at the start and end of the trading market to determine the best interest rate strategies for my clients.

Had I locked them when others who seemingly were offering a better interest rate, their monthly payment would have been $81 per month higher. Because they could afford the extra $81 every month, I set them up on a plan to apply the extra $80 per month towards their debt and mortgage.

By using the $81 another Phoenix Mortgage Broker would have them paying, I was able to give them a plan to have their home paid off 9 years early, saving them $93,412.61 in payments and interest!

So, had they hired another Phoenix Mortgage Broker who was quoting a lower rate that day, they would have paid an extra $93, 412.61 to the bank!

This real life example was part of the motivation for starting this blog and creating the Daily Market Rate Update.

My wife and I form one of the most successful real estate and mortgage teams in the country.    Our SmartBuyer System is GUARANTEED to save every Phoenix area homebuyer a minimum of $50,000, so hiring the right advisers MAKES A DIFFERENCE!

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So far today is the first day in the last four that has treasury prices trading higher, mortgages are following as usual. I suggest floating to begin the day but unless mortgage prices advance from morning levels enough to lessen risk of holding overnight we will lock and not float overnight. Still bullish on rates for the near term but at the present low rate levels we cannot discount a correction of some magnitude.

Treasuries and mortgages opened better this morning after the 10 yr note tested and held its support at 3.26%/3.28% yesterday. At 8:30 the 10 yr +7/32, mortgages +4/32; the DJIA futures traded -2 points. At 9:00 the 10 yr +10/32 at 3.22% -4 Bp, mortgage prices +7/32 and the DJIA -10. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -25, 10 yr +12/32 3.21% -5 BP and mortgages +4/32.

At 7:00 this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications index increased 16.4%; the purchase index +13.2% and the re-finance index + 18.2 from the previous week.  The third consecutive week where the 30-year fixed interest rate was below 5.0%, and is at its highest level since mid-May for the re-finance market. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.3% of total applications from 65.3% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.1% from 6.2% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.89% from 4.94%, with points increasing to 1.13 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This rate is at its lowest level since May 2009 when it was 4.81%. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.32% from 4.34%, with points increasing to 1.04 from 1.01 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed-rate ever recorded in the survey.

Fixed rate MBS production totaled $117B for September, down $24B (17%) month over month. 30 yr production decreased by $18B (15%) from August in large part due to seasonality.

At 2:00 this afternoon treasury will report the budget deficit for Sept and the fiscal 2009 deficit total; expected to total $1.6T for the year.

The only other economic measurement comes at 3:00 this afternoon with August consumer credit, expected to have declined $8.5B after plunging $21.6B in July. Consumer spending is down but not a problem for the economic outlook or the equity markets; markets are discounting the consumer and betting on a consumer less rebound based on business growth and increased profits that were achieved by slashing employees and expenses.

At 1:00 Treasury will sell $20B of 10 yr notes, re-opening the 10 yr note issued in August. No problem for the auction as markets are totally convinced the demand for treasuries, even at these low rates, will continue strong as all auctions have been for the past three months.

Demand for longer dated maturities (10 yr and 30 yr) is being pushed somewhat by mortgage holders buying treasuries to protect against shortened maturities in mortgage duration as rates fall and re-financing increases. Feeding on itself, as rates fall more buyers step up to push rates down further. Inflation fears are almost non-existent in the outlook through most of 2010, also helping drive rates lower. That said, that appears to be contrary to what we are seeing in the gold market with gold making new historical highs. Gold bugs don’t believe that inflation is dead, also we believe gold buyers are not convinced the US economy is free from a double dip recession. Then there is the collapsing dollar that is inflating gold prices; as the buck declines the value of gold in dollar terms increases. Gold prices however; when inflation is applied is still less than what it was in 1982 when it hit $800.00.

The majority of thinking this morning will be on the 10 yr auction at 1:00 and the performance in stock markets. The supply issue continues to weigh, but there is cautious faith that the market will be able to swallow the next two, longer dated offerings. Today’s 10-yr will be followed-up by the $12B 30 yr tomorrow; the bigger test of bonds resilience, suffering from duration, low rates and the, generally, less popular reopened status.

Why use a Phoenix Mortgage Broker? Simple! Not only can a Phoenix Mortgage Broker shop different lenders for the lowest interest rates. But, they also can shop for different guidelines.  Recently, one of my clients had spoken with another Phoenix Mortgage Broker who could not find a loan with 10% down for a second home.  Because I have over 280 different lenders I work with, I have lenders who will lend wwith 10% down a second home.

Need a great Arizona Home Loan?  Call the best Phoenix Mortgage Broker at (602) 291-4362.

Many Arizona home buyers that come into my office are confused and frustrated when they find out that they are not able to get the low “teaser rates” they see advertised on TV and radio.  Why does that happen? Are these advertising practices deceptive?

Well, the answer is no, they are not deceptive.  The details are explained in very small print at the bottom of the page,  For example, if you want the lowest rate available you will need a 740 credit score putting 20% to 25% (varies by lender).  If you are applying for an Arizona FHA, VA or USDA loan, you will get the lowest rate with a 720 0r 740 credit score. (depending on the lender)

Several months ago mortgage lenders instituted changes to the minimum credit scores they would require in order to qualify for an Arizona FHA loan. Most lenders have raised their minimum scores to 620. Many have raised it to 640.  In addition, they have started to institute “tiered pricing” based on your credit score.

“Tiered Pricing” is a very simple process where you pay a higher interest rate with a lower credit score on an FHA loan.  Tiered pricing is actually a sound, fair and logical way to control loans going into foreclosure without penalizing people who have demonstrated a great history in paying their bills on time.

NOTE: Their is no minimum credit score required for an FHA loan by the Federal Government.  Lenders have the right to “overlay” FHA guidelines and create their own rules and guidelines.

So how do you get the best interest rates on an FHA, VA or USDA loan in Arizona?  Simple, raise your credit score!

Raising your credit score is not always that difficult.  I utilize a software program offered by Equifax, TransUnion and Experian to analyze my clients credit report that will tell us EXACTLY what needs to be done to each account and how many points it will raise their credit score!

So, what does that mean to a potential buyer?  The average lender would just inform a client of their score and begin the process.  I will run the analysis to determine what can be done to raise their score in order to qualify for the best interest rates on their Arizona FHA, VA or USDA loan.

The potential savings can be HUGE!  If you get an interest rate that is 1/2% lower,  your potential savings on a monthly basis can be $20 to $100.  And, $50,000 to $100,000 in payment and interest savings over the life of your loan.

Hiring a Lender and Realtor who will offer this type of service is VITAL to your success.

Are you looking to buy a home and want the best interest rates by improving your credit score?  GET STARTED here

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Have questions?  Call my office at (602) 291-4362